Energy Systems Consulting Perspectives

On March 3, the Bipartisan Policy Center hosted the announced release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2022. This much-anticipated report describes EIA’s unbiased view of energy markets reflected in several core scenarios performed using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), a complex energy model of U.S. supply and demand created and maintained by EIA. The core scenarios include a reference case and several alternative scenarios that provide insights into potential changes in energy markets resulting from a range of assumptions about future oil prices, oil and natural gas resources, macroeconomic levels, and renewable costs. The reference case this year also includes the potential effects of select provisions from the recently passed Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) including the Civil Nuclear Credit Program, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown and sales, and overall increased government spending related to the Act.

Now is the time for modelers to reassess how nuclear technologies are represented in energy system models.  That is the conclusion of a new OnLocation paper written for the Nuclear Innovation Alliance. This paper examines the many ways that nuclear energy, including advanced nuclear reactors, can play a significant role in meeting climate mitigation goals and makes a case for energy modelers to consider incorporating characteristics and applications for advanced reactors into their energy economic models.

OnLocation, and our parent company KeyLogic, have decades of experience studying and modeling carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology and policy. This work is highlighted in a newly published Power Magazine article, CCUS: Big Opportunity and Hard Questions.

OnLocation Director Frances Woodand Senior Consultant Jerome Yurchisin attended a recent AIMMS Success Series virtual webinar to present “Keeping the Lights on – Modeling the Future Energy Market in AIMMS.” The presentation describes the REStore (Renewable and Electricity Storage) Model which is a submodule of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)  REStore is a linear programming optimization model designed and implemented by OnLocation using the AIMMS modeling platform. The model represents electricity storage and the temporal pattern of variable renewable generation (i.e., wind and solar photovoltaics).

OnLocation presents the third and final blog in a series that identifies the top environmental and energy policy challenges for 2021 and beyond. This blog focuses on policies aimed at expanding the use of clean fossil-fueled technologies in the power and industrial sectors with the goal of reducing pollution while preserving fuel diversity, improving grid reliability, and utilizing low-cost domestic sources of coal and natural gas.

Arguably the biggest overarching challenge today is to mitigate the greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. All energy-using sectors, including the power and industrial sectors, use a mix of energy sources that include fossil fuels (coal, oil and/or natural gas) that release energy-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the atmosphere. But what if these fossil-fueled technologies could capture and store CO₂ instead of emitting it? These technologies exist today but in most cases are too expensive to implement without policy incentives.

This series of blogs provides policymakers, especially state energy offices and non-governmental organizations, with a clear vision of the benefits of each approach to reducing CO₂ emissions, how different policy options can enable them, and considerations to make when choosing a path forward. Finally, we recommend integrated energy modeling for analyzing the various policy options.