Energy Systems Consulting, Inc.

World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+)

The World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) model provides forecasts to 2030 of energy consumption and supply for 16 world regions, and will be used to produce the IEO07. The model is a response surface type of model, used primarily to produce GDP and price responses to a reference case. When a reference case is run, the model calculates the coefficients for the response surface and saves them into a database. When a side case is run, the model uses the previously calculated coefficients to produce a new forecast relative to changes in GDP and energy prices.

The model starts off by forecasting the end-use consumption of several energy sources for each sector in each of the regions. The sectors are residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation. The energy sources are oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity. These are forecasted based upon the coefficients earlier calculated from the reference case and the levels of GDP and energy prices. The model specification uses a real gdp elasticity, an own-price elasticity, and (where relevant) a price of oil to natural gas elasticity. For electricity demand the model specification uses only a real GDP elasticity.

Separately the model calculates the supply for oil, natural gas, and coal in each of the 16 world regions. The supply is forecasted based upon the coefficients earlier calculated from the reference case and the levels of each energy price. WEPS+ is an econometric model written in Eviews. WEPS+ was used to produce the EIA International Energy Outlook 2007 (IEO2007). The SAGE model was used to produce the electricity generation capacity and generation by fuel in the IEO2007.